TideAlphaThemes first. Then the stocks.
TideAlpha tracks 94 investment themes as equal-weight stock indices, reads where each theme sits in its cycle, and runs weekly books against the reading. Every decision goes into a ledger and is scored the next Friday. Charts, watchlists and fundamentals sit underneath.
How TideAlpha works
Themes, not tickers
94 live themes, from AI infrastructure to uranium, each a list of two to four stocks. The theme index is the equal-weight average of the members that trade at least $1M a day. Every theme has a T: symbol in the terminal, with a chart and its members.
A stage for every theme
At each Friday close the index gets one reading: Dormant, Ignition, Rising, Peaking, Falling or Bust. The rules use the 200-day average, the distance from the 252-day high, the 126-day return and the ratio of 21-day to 126-day volatility. Ignition is a gain of 50% or more in six months after a dip below the 200-day average.
Weekly books with a ledger
The Oracle holds five themes at 20% each: Ignition first, then Rising, ranked by money flow (21-day over 252-day dollar volume). It exits a theme on the first Peaking, Falling or Bust reading and re-ranks the queue at month end. Three rule books run beside it. Each book writes its picks to a ledger and is scored against the equal-weight basket. More about the Oracle.
Notes that explain the moves
An AI analyst writes the daily notes: which themes moved, the narrative behind each move, and the sources with dates. A weekly note audits the Oracle run against its rules. The notes read the same ledger and the same stage table as the books.
What the backtests show
One basis for every row: 150 themes, 94 in the live list and 56 outside it, members holdable after 126 sessions and $1M of daily dollar volume, decisions at the close, fills at the next close, 10 bps a side, idle cash at the 3-month bill. Every book name is a link to its own page.
| Book | CAGR | Sharpe | Worst loss | What it holds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY buy and hold | 11.1% | 0.80 | -51% | The market |
| Equal-weight theme basket | 17.5% | 0.89 | -51% | Every holdable theme member, rebalanced monthly |
| Oracle | 34.8% | 1.18 | -30% | Five themes, Ignition then Rising by money flow, two sleeves per theme group, weekly stage exits, 94 live themes |
| Theme Index Breakout | 36.4% | 1.00 | -38% | Top three themes whose index made a 126-day high, ranked by 126-day return, monthly |
| Theme Money Flow + volatility brake | 38.4% | 0.98 | -40% | Top three themes by dollar-volume expansion, half size when volatility doubles |
- Window 2003-12 to 2026-08 (the Oracle row ends 2026-07). CAGR and worst loss on month-end values. Sharpe on monthly returns at 0% risk-free.
- Every row is in sample. The rules were chosen with the full history in view, and the theme list is the 2026 list, so themes that died without a surviving member are missing. Live results from 2026-08-31 are the only holdout.
- Two numbers set the frame. The gold standard stage book, the labels set on the complete cycle of every theme, gives 67.5% at Sharpe 2.49 with no losing year in 32. Holding every favorable theme at equal weight gives 22.8% at 1.21: the stage filter gives the Sharpe, the ranking gives the return.
- A theme book loses 30% to 50% in a bad year. The full audit and every study are in the terminal for logged-in users.
Research behind it
| Paper | Finding | In TideAlpha |
|---|---|---|
| Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999), Do Industries Explain Momentum?, Journal of Finance | Industry returns carry momentum, and much of stock momentum is industry momentum. | Books rank and hold themes, not single stocks. |
| Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers, Journal of Finance | Winners over 3 to 12 months keep winning for the next 3 to 12 months. | The 126-day return in the stage rules and the monthly re-rank. |
| George and Hwang (2004), The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing, Journal of Finance | Nearness to the 52-week high predicts returns better than past return alone. | A theme reads favorable only within 15% of its 252-day high. |
| Hong and Stein (1999), A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets, Journal of Finance | Information spreads slowly across investors, so prices trend and then overshoot. | Themes are held for months; exits fire on the first break, not on a forecast. |
| Da, Gurun and Warachka (2014), Frog in the Pan: Continuous Information and Momentum, Review of Financial Studies | Steady information gives stronger and longer momentum than a few large jumps. | Money flow (21-day over 252-day dollar volume) rewards steady participation. |
| Daniel and Moskowitz (2016), Momentum Crashes, Journal of Financial Economics | Momentum books crash after market falls and in high volatility. | Weekly stage exits; the dialed book adds a volatility brake and a correlation dial. |
| Greenwood, Shleifer and You (2019), Bubbles for Fama, Journal of Financial Economics | An industry run-up alone does not predict low returns, but a run-up with sharp acceleration and rising volatility predicts a crash. | The Peaking reading (closes under the 50-day average with a volatility spike) and the Bust exit. |
| Shiller (2017), Narrative Economics, American Economic Review; Lee, Lou, Ozik and Sadka, Narrative Momentum, working paper | Stories move prices, and a narrative that builds in coverage carries return information. | The daily notes name the narrative behind each theme move with dated sources. |
| Sornette (2003), Why Stock Markets Crash, Princeton University Press | Bubbles follow a faster-than-exponential path toward a critical time. | The Lifecycle view fits a bubble curve to any theme or stock. It draws the path; it does not forecast. |
The terminal
Multi-resolution charts
Stacked candlestick panes from one minute to monthly, with moving averages, Bollinger Bands, RSI, and earnings and dividend markers.
Theme symbols and lifecycle
Every theme charts as a T: symbol with its members in the side list, its stage, and a fitted lifecycle curve with a time slider.
Live watchlists and saved layouts
Watchlists update in place over one streaming connection. Layouts, resolutions and indicators save to your account.
Fundamentals
Revenue growth, income statements, key statistics, earnings, dividends, and seasonality for every symbol.